PANDEMICS, POPULISM AND PRODUCTIVITY WEBINAR: LONGER-TERM MACRO IMPLICATIONS OF COVID-19
Date: Tuesday, 2nd June 2020
Time: 12:00pm for 12:05pm start until 1:00pm (AEST)
Location: Online via Zoom
As we head towards the middle of the year, there is now widespread acknowledgement that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy will be unprecedented. Efforts to control the spread of the virus – via border closures, social distancing measures, lock downs, as so on – will see a collapse in global GDP through the first half of 2020. At the same time, the macroeconomic policy response has been equally unprecedented, with the delivery of massive fiscal support measures, a return to quantitative easing, and host of other innovative measures.
With restrictions now beginning to be lifted in many countries, the strength of the recovery in global activity will depend, in part, upon the success of those macroeconomic policies – at keeping the structure of the economy intact (allowing businesses to restart), shoring up confidence, and providing stimulus to demand. But the recovery will also depend upon the impact the pandemic will have on behaviour, and on the structure of economic activity, over the longer term. To pick a couple of examples: will there be permanent changes to the way we work, travel and play?; will there be a desire to increase “precautionary” savings?
This presentation will explore some of those shifts in behaviour and structure. In particular, we look at how those changes may interact with secular trends already under way: the rise in populist politics, a trend towards d-globalization, and the challenge of dealing with a massive global debt overhang. What do those themes mean for the long-run outlook for the macroeconomic environment – for global growth, inflation, macroeconomic volatility, and the structure of interest rates?
About The Speaker:
Guy Bruten joined AllianceBernstein (AB) in 2004 and is a member of the firm’s Global Economic Research team. In that role, he provides macro research coverage for a number of countries in the Asia-Pacific region, and is also responsible for conducting thematic research—looking at the impact, for example, of demographic change, the commodity price supercycle and the global surge in populist politics on the outlook for economies and asset prices. Prior to joining AB, Bruten worked in economics and market strategy roles for Macquarie Bank’s Funds Management Group and for SBC Warburg. He started his career in the early 1990s at the Commonwealth Department of the Treasury in Canberra. Bruten holds a BEc from the University of Adelaide and an MEc from the Australian National University.
CFA Societies Australia has determined that this program qualifies for 1 CE credit hour under the guidelines of the CFA Institute Continuing Education Program. If you are a CFA Institute member, use the member app to record your CE credit for your participation in this presentation.